Trading by the moon: Have you ever heard of someone making money by trading cryptocurrency like Bitcoin according to moon phases? It sounds delusional, right? But some people seem to think it could work, so we put it to the test.
The “full moon” trading strategy involves buying Bitcoin on each full moon of the year and selling it when there was a new moon. (The new moon is considered the beginning of the lunar cycle. It is when the Moon is in a position where its illuminated side is not visible from our perspective on Earth, so we can’t usually see it).
We wanted to find out if the moon was a reliable source of crypto trading advice.
At this point you are absolutely thinking, “That’s ridiculous! Does it actually work?” Well, we conducted a test to find out.
Our team looked at Bitcoin prices from 2019 to 2024 and applied the “full moon” strategy to the various price rises and falls over those 6 years. We also included standard fees for buying and selling, simulating the real-life trading experience.
Trading by the Moon: Does it work?
So… the answer is yes and no. The strategy doesn’t work as well as if we had just bought Bitcoin and held onto it.
If you had put €10,000 into Bitcoin in 2019 and didn’t buy or sell at all, you would have had about €95,000 by the end of 2024. This is a massive increase.
But if you had used the “full moon” strategy, you would have only had about €32,000. That’s a huge difference. But let’s not be too hasty in saying that it doesn’t work. €32,000 from a €10,000 initial investment is still good.
While our research concluded that the “full moon” strategy missed out on some of the biggest price increases in Bitcoin, it still isn’t a bad strategy.
Trading by the moon
Full Moon strategy
The “full moon” strategy did actually have good results, but not as spectacular as simply investing long-term. So, what’s the lesson here? If someone offers up a strategy using the moon, don’t be too hasty to ignore it. But also keep in mind that other strategies could be better (or worse).
For example, you could start with a really small amount of money on a trusted exchange. Some exchanges let you start with just €20 and of course don’t risk anything you can’t afford to lose. Nothing is certain in the stock market or the crypto markets.
So in conclusion… The moon is great for werewolves and for looking pretty in the sky, but it may also be an interesting tool for people who are into investing as well. Happy moon watching, star gazers!
Methodology:
1 Historical Price Data: We obtained daily Bitcoin USD prices for 2019–2024 from public datasets ~gist.github.com~
~gist.github.com~
. This provided the closing price on each relevant date.
2 Lunar Dates: Full moon and new moon dates were identified for each month in the period. (For example, in 2020: Jan 10 was full moon, Jan 24 new moon, Feb 9 full, Feb 23 new, etc. ~mooncalendar.astro-seek.com~
~mooncalendar.astro-seek.com~
.) We used an astronomical calendar to list all full/new moon pairs.
3 Trade Simulation: For each full moon:
- If not already invested, buy BTC with the entire current cash balance at that day’s closing price (less 0.1% fee).
- On the following new moon, sell BTC at closing price (less 0.1% fee), converting back to USD.
- The portfolio remains in USD (cash) until the next full moon, when the cycle repeats.
4 Buy-and-Hold Simulation: Starting with $10,000 on Jan 1, 2019, continuously hold BTC for the entire period (no trading except the initial purchase, with a 0.1% fee).
5 Performance Metrics: We computed the final portfolio value, annualized return (CAGR), maximum drawdown, and volatility (standard deviation of monthly returns) for both strategies. The equity curve (portfolio value over time) was also tracked for a visual comparison.
